tv Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo CNBC July 5, 2012 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
as always. we're going down 46 points, a decline as we get ready for the jobs report tomorrow. more "closing bell" coming your way right now. we welcome you to "closing bell." maria bartiromo will be here tomorrow to break down the jobs report that comes out tomorrow. that was what was on investors minds. folks may be spooked given the huge drop we saw last month. investors were not taking any chances today. the dow jones finishing the trading session and being down 46 points on the trading day. also ahead, looking into another pillar of the economy and that
is housing, mortgage rates at record lows, havacancies are at decade low. >> in the meantime, this is how we are settling out. the down was down 91, the lows at the open this morning, the s&p down six points and the nasdaq holding on to a gain, and technology was relatively strong, but all of that changing tomorrow because now that the markets are closed for today, the countdown is on for the all important jobs number for june. while no one knows what number will be, someone here says no matter data, it will create volatility, and he will use that as an opportunity to buy this market. that leads us to what investors should be betting on right now. we are talking about it now.
craig, if i could start with you, basically what would you be doing in this market? how do you use volatility to your advantage and where would you put money to work? >> the market doesn't seem to be brifen on fundamentals at all. volatility is what's going on, and here we use the volatility to buy great businesses that are on sale. there's been market outflows, but they go up in the face of that. people are going to bonds left and right, and greed will return and we'll see atail wind in the equity business. >> gene, do you agree? plenty of people are saying the markets are looking good, are you willing to step up and buy here? >> first, it's great to be on with you and sue, and --
>> we have known gene for many, more years, good to see you too. >> great, bill, thanks. i think the die was cast in the fourth quarter of last year. that's when the financials bottom and the home builders bottom and the interest rates started to get traction we're getting better housing data and so on. i'm very optimistic that even if we get a bad number tomorrow and the market sells off even a couple hundred points, i'm a buyer on any weakness here. >> what is the bond market expecting and how important is this number? does it trump what's going on in europe? >> as i look at a 159 yield, i think it's telling me it doesn't have an indication that we will get a very robust number.
there's also no indication at this point it will be a horrible number, but on the later the market didn't act for funky before the ten year note -- for a couple segments we had a big triple digit down in the dow. so i take that the credit markets may look at the-- equity markets going up, but if the jobs number will not change anything significantly in the big picture in a positive way. >> i will tee it up for you again, do you feel the low yields are an craft reflection and how much of it is just things like operation twist where the fed wants these yields as low as they are right now? >> i think they're one in the same to the bond market. the fed would not have to do these programs if the economy
was in the good shape. to see them wear the heck out of these, they call it a different tool, but it isn't, that's exactly what the bond market is looking at. there isn't anything to hang your hat on if you're looking for interest rates that go down in a solid under pinning economy. >> we have one of the god fathers of value investing, and he agrees, stocks are cheep, but i could not believe when he said those magic words, it's different this time. stocks may be cheap, but the fundamentals are not all that great right now. he is not convinced this is such a great market out there. what do you make of that? >> i totally disagree.
we made over 2,000 company touches, and i have never seen a bigger disconnect between what's going on in business, and what investors think is going on. we have a generation of people that don't trust stocks anymore, and the valuations reflect that, but we talked to companies all the time that say they don't get it, business looks really good, there's nice growth coming, they cut costs and are in good shape. >> we heard that before, an entire generation that does not trust the stock market, and who can blame them? so is there a way to change that? and is there a way to impress upon that generation that if you invest now and on a longer term basis you will reap the
benefits? >> i think so. we're talking about volatility, but in the face of a challenging market. so this market is really identifying a bottom. this cycle will not end until more acknowledgment of the positive nation of this market. so i think this cycle is ending harder than now. >> if companies are bragging how great things are, why aren't they hiring more people? >> i can answer that. we had companies come in that say what business will hire anybody when they don't know what taxes will be -- >> i like that answer. >> i like that answer. >> you're welcome, rick. >> that's what every one of them says. >> good to see you, gene, thank
you for joining us. >> a quiet day that might not be so quiet tomorrow. mary thompson is here on the floor, and added to that, it was a holiday in the middle of the week. the volume was not there, it was a thin market. >> it could be and that is something we have been watching throughout the week. today, volume was lighter than it was. as you might imagine by a margin of 2-to-1. they're making an effort to get into the green. the s&p not moving quite as well. there was a lot of information for investors to sift through today. some additional stimulus by the bank of england, and a nonmanufacturing report that was weak and contained positive news on employment, the euro took a hit today dropping close to a 1
month low after the ecb cut interest rates. that correlated very strongly with the movements in the euro. we saw weakness. energy and telecon contributing to the downward slide today. >> thank you. >> i was just saying that the corn market is at the year's high, and so i bean is in a breath from the high. >> okay, a lot more coming up on the closing bell. >> coming up, paying to rent, why are u.s. home buyers exchanging mortgage applications for rental agreements. plus, what would steve jobs do? is apple making an enormous blunder with it's plan to shrink the ipad? or is this the step they need to
vacancies are at their lowest in more than a decade. so what's driving more people to rent? we have a real estate expert to shed light on that for us. >> at face value, the housing market today doesn't make a lot of sense. but take a look at the argument for buying today. the 30-year fix hit a record low 6.2%. the realtors housing affordability index hit a record high in the fourth quart ther year, and rent verses buy index found buying is cheaper than renting in 28 out of 100 metro markets. keep in mind these folks are in real estate for a living. rents are up, asking and effective, and the renters keep coming. why? tight credit is the number one
answer. rates are low if you can get them. a lot of folks came out of the recession with pour credit and not a down payment to get those great low rates. jobs, especially with the 20 to 30-something cohort. and then there is simple consumer confidence or lack there of, the home ownership rate is nearing record lows because so many potential buyers are still shell shocked from what happened to housing. there is a movement toward city and metro living. people will pay a premium now a days to have everything taken care of. i asked many when they expect it to turn, and the answer is generally not for awhile. the housing market will recover, and those that need to by for lifestyle issues like schools, space, and the yard thing they will buy. for now, the rental market like this summer, shows zero signs of
cooling off. >> we're going to talk more about this and get both sides of this issue. with rates hitting these lows and the affordability index at record highs, we want to pose more on this question about why renters are still rending and not buying right now. >> christopher thornberg says rental prices have peaked, but daniel thinks the trend will continue. why do you think it will continue? we laid out a lot of compelling reasons for why now is the time to buy a home. >> for some of the reasons ie had outlined. credit remains very tight. if they foreclose or have a short sale, they will not get credit soon, and banks have cracked down on people before the bubble that got a home loan now can't. and second is affordability. even if in a market it is
cheaper, there may be options that rending is cheaper on a absolute scale. it's hard to save for down payments. >> christopher, you think this is about to turn, why? >> i think what you're seeing is -- it takes households a little over two years to repair their credit enough to the point where they can go out and consider buying another home. all of those people that foreclose on 2009 and 2010 are taking advantage and moving out. >> are you seeing signs of that yet? >> the out here in the more densely populated area, housing markets hit bottom. we know many markets prices turned the corner and are starting to show signs of
strength. we're still at the very beginning of this, and i think what you're going to see is not the apartment market collapsing. >> don't forget we have all of these foreclosures, a lot of folks have more options where they didn't used to before. there is more to choose from in the single family home rental market. and one caution is that supply is really low right now, but there's a lot of units coming on this year, next year, hundreds of thousands of new parent yumts because developers see what's happening, but it takes three years to build, we'll see more supply coming on. >> we know what happens to builders, they're often too late to the market. >> daniel, it seems to me the housing market is suffering a little from what the stock
market is sufficieering from. a whole generation that would invest don't find it to be a compelling investment. they're not sure it fits their lifestyle any more. >> i think there is a structural shift here. i watched a presentation last week, and he made a come pleling case that millennithose that ar under, are not very interested. they are suffering from historically large student loan balances and it's harder to save. we're seeing a real change here. >> what do you think? is it different this tile because of the demographic play right now? >> yeah, the four most dangerous words in economics is this time it's different. i will say this. i think social security a good thing for people to not view
houses as an investment. ultimately housing is a consumer good. i think a lot of people still desire it and it's the pest thing you can have. >> we'll know in the fullness of time. >> thank you for joining us. >> okay, defying steve jobs. they are going to roll out a mini ipad this year. something steve jobs did not want to do. and president obama making camp in the key battleground states of ohio and pennsylvania where he is expected to continue attacks on mitt romney's record while working at bain capital. does that strike that i did work? we will look at both sides. -8000 resistance, breakouts, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a few other tricks that i'll keep to myself. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's how i trade.
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♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] what's the point of an epa estimated 42 miles per gallon if the miles aren't interesting? the lexus ct hybrid. this is the pursuit of perfection. apple is taking a bite out of the size of it's ipad. that's what that means, subtle, i know it was a subtle. a mini ipad my hit production in september, but it may under mine the idea of steve jobs. we said we don't think you can make a great tablet with a seven inch screen. so this would go against his ideology.
the size of their ipad now is nine inches. todd says the move would be a big mistake which it's off course of where steve jobs would have taken it. make your case. other than that it just disagrows with steve jobs. >> that's the her teenage of the organization, bill. they're a category killer. with this mini ipad, it's like they're chasing a market. they used to define the territory as far as competitors go, and everybody was trying to emulate them and what they did. now they're going after a smaller market. and with 37 account profit margins, i know they will get squeezed in this. >> jay, i equate this with the walt disney company. it's been 50 years since he
died, and his vision is still in place. is it a bad idea to change the vision steve jobs had in place? >> what steve jobs did was say one thing and go do another. he said we'll never do a video ipod. he said we're not doing tablets. if you followed him closely through the years he did one thing and said another. so it doesn't necessarily mean that he should not do a small ipod. >> wouldn't this allow -- >> however, when you look at this, they are creating a product not to create an exceptional product but to go after a market. steve tried to create products that were category killers that would create a new market. now you have apple and tim cook
saying we might lose market because of a smaller product? it doesn't make sense. this will squeeze them down the road. the kindle is a feeder product and so is the nexus. >> you have to know that the kindle is the best selling item on amazon which is saying a lot. >> thin margins. >> but it speaks to the idea that there is a market for a smaller thing. they're not going to abandon the nine inch tablet, they're just adding to the arsenal. >> what tim cook does better than anyone else hot there, is how to make the profit off of these. it's not an accident that apple has $100 billion in cash. it's because of tim cook. i don't think he will put out a
smatter ipad if he doesn't think that they can make money on it. >> steve jobs never wanted to pay a dividend. i think moving forward, you have to expect this will cut into some of the ipad sales. >> so do you want apple to cut into their own sales or amazon and google to cut into their own sales. >> i don't believe they are, they're a category killer. you have other companies trying to compete, i'm late, and compete with an apple, now you have apple reversing course and going after another market right now. >> if they do this and it doesn't work out, how damaging is it to the apple brand where every product they launch is a category killer and is able to make an enormous amount of money for the company?
>> i don't see why it wouldn't work. nobody is close. the reason they are -- they are doing other tablets because they can't compete. they have to go to the smaller market when nobody is there. how would they succeed? >> they will succeed at that product right now. when you're looking as a shareholder and as an investor, the profit margins are going to be squeezed. so why do you do that? do you cut into something making 37%? the logic of an eight inch tablet so a wok can put it into her purse doesn't make sense right now. >> you're splitting hairs with profit margins. if it's a success for the company it's a success. you will have slimmer margins for the tan let market because you have so much competition out there. how can you argue that a smaller profit margin does not make a.
>> tom: -- great success. >> it's also working on television supposedly. it's not the last thing they're doing. it's not like they're calling it a day. this is just another product, expanding the market they own, they defined, and they will take it another direction. >> you don't want to overhappen product development. this hits the bottom line. >> what about when steve jobs there was and then did an ipod and then an ipod mini? >> i was worried about that. >> it worked out fine. >> but they did not enjoy the profit margins. >> seems like investors did well since the ipod to me. >> glad we solved that. >> great job, graet ideas on both sides. >> so president obama is hitting the campaign hard in the first bus tour of the year.
he was in ohio today, pennsylvania tomorrow, two key states in the battle to win the political war on the economy. is now the right time for the president to be doubling down on bashing machinery's record at bain capital as reports suggest he is about to do? we have former governor ed rendell joining us on that issue next. >> plus we have all done it or know someone who has done it. you go to best buy, check out the electronic gadget, and you buy is somewhere else for less. so is their plan to make their stores look more like apple stores a way to combat that? accolade overdrive. zagat just gave hertz its top rating in 15 categories, including best overall car rental.
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the employment report. >> exactly, bill. president obama's poll numbers have stabilized lately and he went on this bus tour making the argument that our poll last week is working with swing voters and going against mitt romney. his first stop today in ohio. president obama contrasted his record in helping bail out the auto industry with what he said was romney's regard sending jobs overseas at bain. >> unlike my opponent, i want to stop giving tax breaks to companies shipping jobs overseas. invest right here in ohio. governor romney's experience were in running companies called "pioneers of outsourcing." that's not my phrase. as long as i'm president, that's
what i'm going to be doing. >> mitt romney was taking more down time today, but yesterday he took time during a fourth of july appearance to try to quiet come plenties from conservatives in the wake of the health care ruling and go on offense against president obama accusing him of raising taxes with his health care program. >> the supreme court has the final word, and it is that obama care is a tax. so it's a tax. they decided it was constitutional. that's the final word. that's what it is. now i agree with the dissent, i would have taken a different court, but that was not the majority. they have ruled and they're rule is final. >> and those are the contours of the argument you will be hearing through election day. i stoke to steve schmidt. he said most of the voters are rehearsing for the fights they
will engage in throughout the fall. >> as john mentioned, the president is expected to hit mitt romney again in his time on private capital. but in states where the economy is still tough, will that resonate? >> ed rendell is with us and says not only are the attacks effective but they are accurate while the strategist and joe watkins says the president is desperate to deflect from his own economic record, so we have both sides right here. governor rendell, it's good to see you again, how effective is it for the president to attack him on a strategy from years ago when it was prudent to outsource jobs and ring out costs, what was wrong with that? >> i think there is a combination of things. the american workers, whether it
was prudent, they didn't like it, it hurt them and cost them jobs, and you also spoke of the willingness to remove the tax break on the corporations that outsource jobs and capital in foreign countries. >> is private equity a bad representation of capitalism in is country? >> no, it isn't, and remember private equity's job is to make money for it's investors. it's not as governor romney claimed to create jobs. private equity cannot outsource jobs. american workers don't like they. -- that's a legitimate inquiry by the american voters and the american's voters right to bring it up. >> is this an appropriate stance to be taken by the president?
>> first of all, factchecks.org say that it's false, misleading, and they said it again when the obama campaign tried to deflect that saying they were being accurat accurate. >> what was false? >> they're saying he left in february of 1999, and that he had nothing to do with the decisions of the company after that point because he was working for the olympics. so to try to pin what bain capital did, the investment decisions on there was not fair or true. now, that being said, it's still hurtful, and it's a hurtful criticism that hurts and it does -- it is hurting in the polls, certainly in places like ohio and pennsylvania. so this is having a lasting
effect. it's not a fair criticism. it's good things. >> is it disgenerous to believe -- >> as someone who ran an investment form, they would provide a return on investment. he did a great job of that at bain capital. so to try to pin the decisions theyed made after february 1999, they are inaccurate as well. >> can i respond to that for just a second? when mitt romney left in 1999 he said he would be part-time at bain as have decisions on investments. ann romney said he is dividing
his time between bain and the olympics, and worst of all is the "wall street journal" said the criticisms weren't valid, they said documents filed showed that he still had ties to the companies, and these documents, the fcc -- the sec, 33 filings for brookside there said he was the ceo all the way up to may of 2001. >> ed rendell comes prepared. >> he comes prepared, but sadly it's not true. nobody wants to be blamed for -- >> the "wall street journal" is lying? he signed the form. factcheck.org showed the paper he signed in february of 1999.
so i believe -- >> we have to admit, we're sort of getting off point by arguing this one little point of what he would or would not have done when he left bain capital, but the bigger issue is the issue of jobs and how you create them and if they should still be sent overseas and if it's a good idea in this economy right now. you have to admit that will resonate in states like ohio and pennsylvania when those jobs were sent overseas. >> that's right, and that's why it is a very effective campaign tool. maybe dnot the best one. pennsylvania is about 7.4%. these are old rust belt manufacturing states that lost lots of jobs to have a message saying machinery is the face of the jobs and leaving the state
is a bad thing. >> is he needlessly demonizing venture capitalize, though? >> no, i think there is a difference between demonizing venture capital and companies that outsource jobs. >> venture capitalism is a good thing. >> good to see you, gentleman. is smaller, better? best buy is experimenting with a slimmed down store. customers check out products and buy them cheaper somewhere else. how will this help? and the top stock pickers say how to play the jobs report that comes out first thing in the morning. >> time now for going global, europe. >> these are the stories we're watching in europe. tomorrow, the report is out,
analyst suspect 95,000 jobs to be created in june. the greek prime minute ster will present his coalition government's policy plan to the parliament government. and aviation is in focus can traffic numbers from afr berlin and air france, we'll be breaking down that data, and it's friday, check in all of the action overseas at the cnbc head quarters. we're going global with your men. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank, like no-fee atms, all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments. a highly acclaimed credit card with 2% cash back into your fidelity account. open a fidelity cash management account today and discover another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity.
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we started without you, best buy is taking a page from apple's play book in the fight to churn around the struggling difference. they're letting customers pay for items in different departments and they're offering a solution central help desk. >> but can they survive with so many consumers looking at product ths in store and then buying them online and elsewhere. our guest says that apple and best buy have been making gt right moves. in the other corner, michael packer doubts the strategy will work. conner, you recently visiting a best buy store and you liked what you saw, but many question is is it too late to execute.
to matter what it looks like, perhaps it's the right thing to do, but they waited so long to do it? >> i think we agree it has taken time for them to get their act together, but we think they're moving in the right direction. one of the things i liked even more, one of their new model stores, is what i could not see. they put up a wall and rented out the other half. we think on a smaller square footage base they will be able to maintain a similar amount of sales. >> michael, you're not buying it, why? >> i think it's brilliant, but i think it's ten years too late. and i'm not sure they're executing it right. these stores are still pretty big. an apple store is a 35,000
square foot store, they have things that are moveable. if you copy that and put in tablets and phones, these stores are too big, too many products, and it's quite an odd pair dime to talk about the geek squad and the genius bar. >> conner, how does best buy get rid of that notion and even in fact, the reality of people going into the store, shopping, and buying elsewhere online. they're using best buy as a show room. >> first of all, best buy has done great with best buy mobile, and when you talk about new stand alone stores they're doing it in the smaller format. when it comes to showrooming for
the internet, i think that's great news. they can show electronics and goods to the consumer, and they're a more important customer than amazon is. we think they have a great opportunity to get pricing sets to customers will look at the price at a best buy store, see it's the same, and then take that product home. >> if it doesn't work, is there any choice but to take the company private? >> i don't think they can pull that off. you're talking about probably raising between $6 and $8 billion in debt. i don't think any lenders will pony up. they barely do $1.3 billion in cash flow. i don't think they can support that kind of debt. people don't go into a best buy store to activate a mobile
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it is a company that has become a part of our culture. i'm talking about google. lots of folks use it and depend on it. so why is one town less than thrilled with the thought of the company? our jane wells is there in venice beach to tell us why. why, jane? >> reporter: oh, bill. you know, some people love to hate google whether it's over privacy or street view, china, but over jobs? google is leasing 100,000 square feet here in venice. it's also leasing space in another building nearby, which houses the legendary gold's gym. some locals, not all, fear what the search giant will do to
venice's character. >> i love the beatnik kind of style, the art community, so i could see where google people would have an issue with that. >> from my standpoint it's good because i own a house here. it increases the demand on nice houses in the area. >> in terms of helping venice overall, is it good or bad? >> bad. >> what do you like about ven e venice? >> it's cultured. it's nontampered with. you are who you are here. people pretty much leave you alone. >> reporter: but for all the tech start-ups here, google's expansion is validation for what's being called silicon beach. >> it keeps talent here. rather than people that go to cal tech or usc and ucla and either move up to the bay area to go where companies are, staying in l.a., working at a campus like google. in a couple years, they might want that hungry start-up environment and move on to a start-up. >> reporter: look out.
facebook is expandi ining into w office space a few miles that way. bill, the biggest complaint, it will mariean less parking. back to you. >> jane wells, thank you so much. yes, imagine that. muscle beach versus the geeks of google. >> only in california. all right. brace yourselves. you know what's coming up tomorrow. the jobs report. it's definitely going to move your money first thing tomorrow morning. >> three of the street's top strategists will tell you how they see it playing out tomorrow morning 37. ♪ ♪ ♪
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all right. let's face it. tomorrow it's all about the june jobs report. with 30 seconds on the clock each time, our next guests will tell us how they think it will turn out and what they're watching for tomorrow. >> chad, we're going to start it off with you. 30 seconds on the clock. tell me what you're expecting. >> thanks, sue. two things tomorrow. you have the jobs number. the private payrolls should come in around 100,000 as well as the unemployment at 8.2. that still doesn't keep up with
population growth and keep in mind that the private jobs number total is 111 million workers today. it was that ten years ago. also, the bond markets, spain and italy. as interest rates climb, risk is going to come off on the equity markets. >> peter, 30 seconds. go. >> three quick points with jobs. if it's 100, 125, 150, it's mediocre at best. the past three months were averaging less than 100. secondly, jobs are a lagging g indicator. if you expect as i do that the global economy is going to grow, it's not going to happen to the expe extent people are expecting. >> all right. the last word. >> thanks, sue. let me tell you how i'm going to trade tomorrow's jobs report. with the adp this morning that was stronger than expected and the ecb cutting rates, if the
jobs report is decent, which i think it will be, i like the idea of shorting gold against a stronger dollar and the fact that qe-3 will be off the table. so if the jobs report's good, short gold. >> all right. well, how do you not like that? finishing up "closing bell" and "fast money" broke out. gentlemen, thank you all. we'll know at 8:30 a.m. eastern time thunderstoomorrow what the number looks like. before we go, a recap on the streets. we all anticipate the jobs report. the markets held steady. the dow down 47 points, ending just a shade below 12,900. the s&p 500 gave back six points to close at 1368. the broader average snapping a three-session winning streak on weakness and financials, energy, and telecom. nasdaq bucked the trend and edged up fractionally. >> we'll know tomorrowni